The backstory The have looked like three different teams this season. They struggled in September and their offense limped to the finish line. In the two months in-between, they were easily the most dominant team in the AFC, crushing playoff teams like the , , , and by at least 20 points each. An offense built on short pa sing and long drives somehow put up 40 points five times. At their best, no one could touch the in Foxborough. But we haven't seen a complete game out of New England since . That's a serious concern. The have won playoff games in Foxborough before, but these are two dramatically different teams than two years ago. Baltimore's defense actually looks much better and more physical than they did when they won the title. The defensive line can rush the pa ser and stuff the run well. The ' offense had a Week 16 meltdown and needed help to get into the playoffs, but that doesn't matter now. They have looked as complete and balanced as any team for most of the season. There's a reason the are ; they don't have many weakne ses. Under pre sure , : It's on Brady to expose the one clear shortcoming the ' defense has. was not able to take advantage a secondary that includes , , , , and nothing close to a "shutdown" cornerback. Baltimore kept two safeties back and got pre sure with their front four. No one is better at picking out mismatches before the snap, going through his reads, and snapping the pa s out quickly than Brady. Only two teams under Belichick have been more pa s heavy than this squad, yet they are a compact offense that doesn't make many big plays. An inconsistent running game and lack of a deep threat puts pre sure on Brady to be precise and pick up a lot of third downs. The don't have anyone to cover , and will be trouble for a diminished . This feels like a game in which the will emphasize their weapons over the middle, including tight end Tim Wright and running back . The know they need to apply quick pre sure to disrupt Brady's timing. The ' got a lot of pre sure up the middle in Week 16, and tested an inconsistent offensive line's communication. Baltimore coordinator Dean Pees timed his blitzes perfectly last week in Pittsburgh and knows what bothers Brady after spending six seasons with the . The return of made the entire defense better, with excelling at nose tackle and quietly playing well. can play inside and out and still hustles like a rookie. This is a deep and varied front that needs to win battles quickly because Brady isn't going to hold the ball for long. Matchup to watch and vs. secondary Baltimore's tight ends are coming off a strong game in Pittsburgh, but the will live with and getting a lot of targets. We'd gue s that is more likely to cover . doesn't have the speed to keep up. He's overrated and a penalty magnet. Another option would be to put slot cornerback on with a safety over the top, much like the did against and the . That would leave Revis Vincent Lecavalier Jersey to try to erase for much of the day. The matchup on the outside will be fascinating because we expect Belichick to leave his cornerbacks in man pre s coverage often. That will allow him to get creative up front and manufacture a pa s rush by creating different looks. In , , and , Belichick has his most athletic and versatile trio of defenders ever in New England. Jones is a physical freak and often rushes from the inside on pa sing downs. Hightower can line up as an edge rusher or inside linebacker. Collins' range as a blitzer and in pa s coverage is crazy. that Baltimore gave up a lot of pre sure against Pittsburgh, but the didn't finish plays. This team is far different than previous groups. They are more athletic and le s stout at the point of attack. They rotate defenders far le s, with seven players suiting up almost every snap. That's why we expect Belichick to compensate for a weakne s and sell out to stop the ' running game with extra defenders in the box. He'll trust his secondary to hold up. This much we know: is not afraid to pull the trigger deep early and often. He's a dangerous playoff quarterback because he knows aggre sion wins. This game could be decided by who comes down with those mid-air to ses after Flacco goes deep. Mind-blowing stats These teams are far different than two seasons ago. The have 36 (out of 53) different players than they did on their title squad. The have 32 different players. ... With that said, is 12-3 at home in the postseason. Two of those lo ses are to Baltimore. ... Since 2005, No. 6 seeds like the are amazingly 5-4 against No. 1 seeds. ... Only the have outscored opponents by more than Baltimore after halftime this season. ... was held under 50 yards only two times in his first 13 games. It's happened in three of the four games since. The earned a bye for the fifth straight season, the most in NFL history. ... New England didn't lose once when scoring more than 23 points. Their offense was among the most efficient in the league, scoring on 45.3 percent of their drives. Only the had a higher percentage. New England wasn't nece sarily explosive. They specialized in scoring drives over ten plays, leading the league in that category. Brady had the third-lowest completion percentage in the NFL of throws that traveled 20 yards in the air. Prediction At this point of their careers, anything short of a championship will be a deep disappointment for and . Buoyed by a healthy and a playmaking defense led by , this feels like their best, last chance. That's why we don't buy the " are the worst po sible matchup" thinking for New England. If they can't take care of Baltimore at home , there's no way they are capable of beating Green Bay or Seattle at a neutral site. After relative walkovers in the Divisional Round the last few years, perhaps a strong test is the best litmus test for this team's championship aspirations. Their last two title runs, now a decade old, started against very challenging opponents. (A 3-point win over Tenne see after '03, a win over the favored in '04.) This is the best defense since 2004, which should be enough to carry them through in a close game. Look for Belichick to sell out to stop the run, and trust his secondary to make plays. The have the talent to win, but their 2014 resume indicates they are the inferior team, especially on the road. Prediction: 27, 19 The latest Around The NFL Podcast and breaks down the Manning-Luck matchup. Find more Around The NFL content on . Luke Glendening Jersey